The internet is no stranger to wild debates, but a recent one stood out to us: could 100 humans defeat a single gorilla in battle? While that might remain a topic best left to social media speculation, it serves as a thought-provoking analogy for supply chain planning. Namely: Is it better to plan based on 100 what if scenarios, or to rely on a single, deterministic plan?
In our view, the answer is clear: running 100 scenarios is a far more effective strategy than banking everything on a single rigid plan. While we can’t speak for combat tactics, we are strong advocates for a scenario-driven, probabilistic approach in supply chain planning. In other words, it’s not a great idea to put all of your eggs in a single basket!
Why Single-Number Plans Fall Short
The problem is that a deterministic, one-number plan is dangerously misleading in practice. For instance, a one-number demand forecast often averages the highest and lowest expected demand values, which can mask the actual volatility facing the business. It assumes certainty where there is none, ignoring the nuances of variability, risk tolerance, and real-world unpredictability that organizations face every day.
Traditional supply chain planning tends to rely on this deterministic model, treating the plan as static. However, today’s business environment is anything but predictable. Companies must deal with fluctuating lead times, volatile demand, inconsistent inventory levels, information delays, and much more. The stakes are high – and sticking to a single forecast in this context often leads to inefficiencies, missed opportunities, or severe disruption.
Probabilistic Planning: Modeling Reality
Probabilistic planning embraces the inherent uncertainty of supply chains by modeling a range of possible outcomes through probabilities. Rather than pretending we know exactly what will happen, this method simulates different scenarios, giving decision-makers insight into what might happen and how best to prepare for it.
By using probabilistic models, companies can visualize demand and supply variability, analyze ranges of outcomes, and design planning policies that are flexible and adaptive. This empowers supply chain leaders to develop range-based forecasts and strategies that account for uncertainty, manage risk, and effectively pivot in the face of disruption.
Simulations: Exposing Risks and Revealing Opportunities
Scenario planning is a hot topic right now – and for good reason, given the ongoing disruptions and the changes in tariffs shifting the trade landscape. At the 2025 Gartner Supply Chain Symposium, scenario planning was highlighted as a vital approach to navigating today’s divergent and disruptive supply chain environments.
Simulation is at the heart of this process. By injecting real-world variables into planning such as supplier delays, transportation interruptions, or sudden demand spikes, organizations can anticipate and prepare for a variety of outcomes.
Simulations also help identify vulnerabilities in the supply chain. By modeling potential failures, such as dependence on a single critical supplier or raw material, businesses can develop mitigation plans in advance. This proactive strategy ensures timely responses when disruptions strike and prevents operational paralysis.
And it’s not all about avoiding risk. Scenario planning also uncovers opportunities. For example, simulations can show where extra capacity could be leveraged to meet a surge in demand, or where cost efficiencies could be gained through smarter inventory positioning or supplier diversification. Understanding where flexibility exists allows companies to capitalize on upside scenarios as well.
Scenario Planning: The Key to a Proactive Strategy
The real power of scenario planning lies in its ability to guide proactive decision-making. Knowing the likely impact of a potential change allows leaders to explore multiple response options and determine which will yield the best outcome for the business. This transforms supply chain planning from a reactive discipline to a strategic advantage.
Returning to our original analogy: the key isn’t to treat 100 scenarios as 100 isolated predictions. Rather, think of them as interconnected; each one offering a glimpse into a broader picture of probable outcomes. As conditions evolve and uncertainty diminishes, planners can narrow their focus and make more targeted decisions. It’s about maintaining optionality and readiness, instead of guessing at a single “correct” answer.
When you adopt this mindset, you can build a scenario playbook: an adaptable guide that evolves with real-world data. Whether that means redesigning a bill of materials, sourcing from a more diversified supplier base, or realigning production capacity, the result is a more resilient, responsive supply chain.
Embrace the Power of Simulation
It all comes down to gaining that ability to model complexity, test assumptions, and quickly pivot. This is what separates resilient organizations from the rest.
While a single plan may feel reassuring, it’s not equipped to deal with the speed and scale of today’s business challenges. Instead, companies should embrace probabilistic planning and scenario simulation to effectively mitigate risks and unlock opportunities for growth, innovation, and efficiency.
At the end of the day, the question isn’t whether 100 people can beat a gorilla (even though the internet has shown great curiosity!). The question is whether your business can afford to rely on a single guess when the stakes are high and the future uncertain.
We help companies like yours move beyond deterministic planning by embracing simulations and scenario planning. Let’s have a chat and empower your team to adapt, evolve, and succeed.
Are you ready to swap your single plan for a smarter, scenario-driven strategy?
