Atlas Module

Scenario Analysis

flip Scenario Analysis

Scenario Analysis

Segment Your Products and Drive Strategic Business Decisions

Scenario Analysis helps you build a process that is tailored to your business and the factors that contribute to demand volatility in your industry. With Scenario Analysis, you can regularly analyze your business in detail, delivering a road map to overcome your business challenges. The result is the best possible supply chain performance and bottom line improvement.

  • Segment your products and drive strategic decisions on forecasting, production, purchasing and inventory policies.
  • Analyze trend and historical patterns to define product characteristics: New Product, Seasonal, Event/Promotional, Sporadic.
  • Evaluate forecastability of different data streams: POS, Historical, Shipment, Invoice.
  • View analysis with a graphical dashboard with key metrics to focus on action.
  • Simulate different statistical forecast methodologies at different levels of the business and product family.
Scenario Analysis

Create the Best Forecasting Process

Keeping on top of a changing business environment is a struggle for many companies. John Galt helps you keep your planning process aligned with these changes with the Forecast Analysis component of the Atlas Planning Suite. This module allows you to regularly analyze your business in detail, and delivers a road map to your business challenges and the strategies to overcome them.

If your business is embarking on a new demand planning project or if the existing process is too time-consuming, Forecast Analysis will deliver the focus needed to plan efficiently. You may also benefit if inventory levels remain high, stock-outs persist, or you are forecasting at the detail level and are still fighting customer service issues. The goal is to evaluate your business to find the best forecast approach, allowing you to build a process for each result category, and then monitor accuracy trends to assist in setting inventory policies.

Atlas Forecast Analysis

A module of the Atlas Planning Suite, Forecast Analysis provides scenario analysis for demand planning. To determine the optimal result, Forecast Analysis runs various forecast approaches that do not impact the monthly process. Graphical and numerical reports quickly reveal the best approach. The results can be incorporated into the forecast process; for example, high volume-low forecastability items can be filtered by sales for customer collaboration. This reduces effort and provides the highest value forecast.

Understand Business Forecasting Challenges

By conducting historical analysis at various aggregate levels, John Galt Forecast Analysis quickly determines the key challenges impacting your business. Sales history is categorized based on lifecycle, seasonality, trend, forecastability, outliers, and other factors. With these tools, planners can present the current state of the business to management and track shifts over time. Tying each category to revenue reveals how critical these aspects are to your business. The strategy differs when the analysis shows that the majority of revenue is tied to new and emerging lifecycle groups versus mature or sporadic. Forecast Analysis can then recommend techniques to handle categories with the Atlas Planning Suite.

Solution Benefits

  • Reduce forecasting effort for your business
  • Improve forecast accuracy
  • Quickly categorize unique business and forecasting challenges
  • Recommends forecasting approaches and inventory policies
  • Profiles the underlying business characteristics at multiple levels: New Product Introduction, Events and Promotions, Seasonality, Trend, Sporadic Demand
  • Provides product segmentation based on revenue, margin, and forecastability
  • Evaluates the different product levels and forecasting methods side by side

Find the Stability

Aggregate levels of sales history can clarify the patterns and forces that drive your business.

Evaluate Forecast Approaches

Forecast Analysis can evaluate any combination of history inputs, statistical forecasts, top down or middle-out forecasts and suggest the best for the business. The purpose is to find the approach that gives the lowest error results either to the business as a whole, groups or individual items.

Incorporate Results into Monthly Process

Once the best approach is selected, this configuration is applied to the forecast calculation. The results of the analysis can be used to filter the products or customers that require the most attention and the tools that will yield the best result. For example, high value/low Forecast-ability items could benefit from Collaboration, Event Management and Profile forecasting. Going forward, Forecast Analysis can be used to track the Forecast Value Add for the Sales Plan or Consensus Forecast to ensure that the planning process delivers maximum value.

Using Our Unique Capabilities to Create the Best Process

John Galt consultants work with planners to understand your forecasting challenges and determine the right Demand Planning strategies to improve results.

  • Define one or more history views to use as the basis for forecasting. Set a holdout duration that covers a typical demand pattern.
  • Configure thresholds for various parameters for history evaluation such as trend duration and growth/decline ratios.
  • Set Forecast-ability based on one or more statistical measures. See how many items are considered forecastable using Procast™ at any level.
  • Select any number of forecast approaches for evaluation using hierarchies, levels, statistical or naïve methods, and compare with user-created forecasts.
  • Analyze history using configurable dashboard to visualize forecasting issues and pivot reports to combine into a compelling revenue view.
  • Summarize forecast approaches graphically using our quadrant view and quickly evaluate results using number of series, percent of total units sold and revenue contribution.
  • Integrate results into live forecast scenario and begin using process recommendations to improve accuracy and margins.

Ready to optimize your supply chain?