M3 Forecasting Competition Results

John Galt astounds industry with results from M3 forecasting competition

John Galt’s ForecastX competed with established Business Forecasting Software Companies at the M3 forecasting competition at Insead University. The competition included Quarterly, Annual and Monthly time intervals and data samples from Microeconomic, Industry, Macro, Finance and Demographic categories.

John Galt’s ForecastX software crushed the competition in four of the six data categories in its first year of competition. With its enhanced expert selection, John Galt narrowly missed winning in the monthly category by .001%.

At John Galt we are not satisfied with the status quo. Since the M3 we have worked tirelessly to enhance our product and make it the best forecasting software on the market. We were good then, we are great now. With the enhancements we have made to our product we are now the undisputed leader of the forecasting industry.

You can find the M3 results below.

QUARTERLY DATA MAPE (MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENT ERROR)
Forecasting Horizons Average of Forecasting Horizons
Software Package 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 12 15 18 1 to 4 1 to 6 1 to 8 1 to 12 1 to 15 1 to 18 n(max)
ForecastX 4.8 6.7 7.6 9.1 9.8 11.3 13.3 0 0 0 7.04 8.22 9.38 9.38 9.38 9.38 756
Forecast Pro 3 4.9 6.8 7.9 9.6 10.5 11.9 13.9 0 0 0 7.28 8.57 9.77 9.77 9.77 9.77 756
SmartForecasts 5.9 7.7 8.6 10 10.7 12.2 13.5 0 0 0 8.02 9.16 10.15 10.15 10.15 10.15 756
YEARLY DATA MAPE (MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR)
Forecasting Horizons Average of Forecasting Horizons
Software Package 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 12 15 18 1 to 4 1 to 6 1 to 8 1 to 12 1 to 15 1 to 18 n(max)
ForecastX 8.5 12.4 16.1 18.2 21 22.7 0 0 0 0 13.8 16.48 16.48 16.48 16.48 16.48 645
Forecast Pro 3 8.3 12.2 16.8 19.3 22.5 24.1 0 0 0 0 14.5 17.14 17.14 17.14 17.14 17.14 645
SmartForecasts 9.5 13 17.5 19.9 22.1 24.1 0 0 0 0 14.95 17.68 17.68 17.68 17.68 17.68 645
Monthly Data Set 1 MAPE (MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR)
Forecasting Horizons Average of Forecasting Horizons
Software Package 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 12 15 18 1 to 4 1 to 6 1 to 8 1 to 12 1 to 15 1 to 18 n(max)
ForecastX 11.6 11.2 12.6 14 12.4 12.2 12.8 13.9 17.8 18.7 12.32 12.31 12.46 12.83 13.60 14.45 1428
Forecast Pro 3 11.5 10.7 11.7 12.9 11.8 12.3 12.6 13.2 16.4 18.3 11.72 11.82 12.06 12.46 13.09 13.86 1428
SmartForecasts 11.6 11.2 12.2 13.6 13.1 13.7 13.5 14.9 18 19.4 12.16 12.58 12.9 13.51 14.22 15.03 1428
Monthly Data Set 2 MAPE (MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR)
Forecasting Horizons Average of Forecasting Horizons
Software Package 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 12 15 18 1 to 4 1 to 6 1 to 8 1 to 12 1 to 15 1 to 18 n(max)
ForecastX 9.6 11.1 13.2 15.1 15.1 15.4 13.8 16.5 21.2 22 12.25 13.24 13.29 13.77 14.51 15.34 2141
Forecast Pro 3 9.6 10.8 13 14.9 15.3 15.9 14.1 15.6 19.5 21.7 12.05 13.25 13.34 13.78 14.37 15.09 2141
SmartForecasts 10 11.2 13.5 15.4 15.9 16.6 14.3 17.3 21.5 22.5 12.51 13.74 13.82 14.42 15.09 15.87 2141
Seasonal Data MAPE (MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR)
Forecasting Horizons Average of Forecasting Horizons
Software Package 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 12 15 18 1 to 4 1 to 6 1 to 8 1 to 12 1 to 15 1 to 18 n(max)
ForecastX 6.3 6.8 7.6 8.2 8.4 10.3 10.3 9.7 11.9 13.2 7.21 7.94 8.59 8.83 9.18 9.65 862
Forecast Pro 3 6.2 6.6 7.5 8.1 8.4 10.2 10 9.6 11.5 13.1 7.12 7.84 8.44 8.68 9.02 9.49 862
SmartForecasts 7.2 7.9 8.3 8.8 9.5 11.4 10.7 11.3 12.7 14.8 8.05 8.85 9.42 9.82 10.23 10.72 862